TONIGHT'S PICKBreakdown (1997)
Hollywood Afterthought
Mostow · Kurt Russell · Paramount
HA
— Chapter One —

Hollywood
Afterthought

The Take After the Credits Roll

Rewatchability scores. Box office autopsies. Trailers with opinions. The conversation you have in the parking lot after the movie — that's the whole site.

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Trailers worth your time. With opinions attached.
In Theaters Only
Is God Is
Is God Is
May 2026 · Harris · Amazon MGM
Toy Story 5
Toy Story 5
Jun 2026 · Stanton · Pixar
Pressure
Pressure
May 2026 · Maras · Focus Features
Super Mario Galaxy
Super Mario Galaxy
Apr 2026 · Illumination · Universal
Project Hail Mary
Project Hail Mary
Mar 2026 · Lord & Miller · Amazon MGM
The Mandalorian & Grogu
The Mandalorian & Grogu
May 2026 · Favreau · Disney
EPiC: Elvis Presley in Concert
EPiC: Elvis Presley in Concert
Feb 2026 · Luhrmann · NEON
The Bride!
The Bride!
Mar 2026 · Gyllenhaal · Warner Bros
The Breadwinner
The Breadwinner
May 2026 · Appel · Sony
— What's In The Box —

LATEST TAKES

REWATCHABILITY · FEATURED
3 Filmmakers Who Turn IP into OP
Hollywood does not really make movies out of intellectual property anymore. It makes updates. You watch them the way you check a group chat. Is there another scene? Do we have to stay here? I need to pee.
FEB 16, 2026
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Hollywood does not really make movies out of intellectual property anymore. It makes updates.

You watch them the way you check a group chat, just making sure you are caught up so the next thing makes sense. When the credits roll you do not think about moments. You think about implications. What it set up. Who is returning. What now exists in canon. Is there another scene? Do we have to stay here? I need to pee. Six months later what do you really remember?

Every once in a while someone takes the same corporate material and makes it feel original. You put it on again. Not to analyze. Not to revisit themes. Just because it feels easy to be there. The strange part is it keeps being the same handful of filmmakers doing it. Seth Rogen and Evan Goldberg, Paul King, and Denis Villeneuve.

It never seems like they are adapting an IP. They are elevating it.

The hangout problem

Modern franchise storytelling runs on urgency. Every scene exists to transfer information or to manipulate the rules and stakes. Characters become delivery systems for clarity so nobody feels lost. You don't know we switched timelines? Let every character repeat it until your face turns blue.

That is why so many modern movies lose any appeal on rewatch. No one wants to just hear the rules and not play the game.

Rogen and Goldberg keep dodging that trap because their scenes do not exist purely to advance plot. People talk too long and jokes land that do not matter. Conversations drift sideways. The story continues but it is not the only reason the moment exists.

Look at Mutant Mayhem. For twenty years every Ninja Turtles attempt kept increasing scale trying to justify the brand. Bigger villains. Deeper lore. The more important the narrative became the less the turtles felt like teenagers. They were mythology delivery systems wearing a shell.

In Mutant Mayhem, the ninja turtles are…teenagers. You learn who they are when nothing important is happening. They interrupt each other. Argue about dumb things. By the time action starts you already understand their behavior, so watching it again is not just hearing the rules. It is revisiting a dynamic and spending time with characters you know.

They seem to be doing something similar with the Muppets. Legacy characters just exist on screen without constantly proving why they matter. Once a movie stops trying to justify its own existence you relax, and relaxed movies are the ones people put on again without planning to.

Paul King and the removal of embarrassment

Corporate characters usually come with defensive filmmaking. A layer of sarcasm sits on top so adults do not feel childish watching it. The movie apologizes before you can accuse it of caring too much. Paul King don't play that shit. Instead of modernizing tone he modernizes clarity. Every emotion reads instantly. Every motivation is visually communicated before dialogue even starts.

The result is comfort rather than nostalgia. Paul's films do not rely on remembering anything. They rely on immediately understanding everything. You can drop into the middle of Paddington or Wonka and recalibrate within seconds. He is one of the best filmmakers at setting a confident tone and carrying it through the entire movie.

Rewatchability comes from effortlessness. If a film asks for context you schedule it. If it provides context immediately you live with it.

Denis Villeneuve and texture over explanation

Franchise filmmaking usually treats canon like instructions. Information is explained so the viewer can follow the next event. Once the outcome is known the machinery becomes visible and repeat viewing drops off because the puzzle has already been solved.

Villeneuve treats it like history instead of logistics. Scenes linger past the moment they technically need to. Silence exists even when exposition could fill it. You absorb the feeling of the world instead of memorizing its rules.

You return to Dune for weight and texture, not discovery. The film stops behaving like a story you finished and starts behaving like a place you remember.

Why most IP dies immediately

Now look at the other side. The modern revival sequel, the legacy reboot, and most recent Marvel entries all share the same invisible design philosophy. They are engineered for comprehension. Characters constantly restate motivations. Plot points are checkpointed so nobody gets lost. Like the worst fate your film could face is one confused customer. The movie never trusts the audience to simply observe because observation does not move the franchise forward.

Guided tours are terrible rewatches. Once you know where the guide is leading you the experience has no remaining function. You are aware of structure the entire time. Scene introduces problem. Characters explain problem. Solution advances mythology. Once surprise disappears the skeleton is all that remains. You are just listening to the rules.

These filmmakers share one trait. They remove urgency.
DIRECTOR SPOTLIGHT
Give Derek Cianfrance $100M and Final Cut
One of the best working filmmakers in America has spent his entire career making masterpieces out of pocket change. His entire feature filmography has cost less than any single Nolan or Villeneuve film. Combined.
FEB 21, 2026
▼ READ FULL ARTICLE

Somewhere in Hollywood there is a whiteboard with a list of directors who are allowed to make expensive movies about human beings. It is a short list. It is getting shorter. Derek Cianfrance is not on it and that is a crime.

The man has never had a budget higher than $20 million. Let that sit for a second. One of the best working filmmakers in America has spent his entire career making masterpieces out of pocket change while the industry hands nine figures to people who have proven nothing except that they can deliver a movie on time.

The résumé nobody is reading

Blue Valentine cost roughly a million dollars. Cianfrance had Ryan Gosling and Michelle Williams live together in character for a month before cameras rolled. No rehearsals. Rarely more than one take. He shot a relationship forming and disintegrating across two timelines and made it feel like a document instead of a movie. It made $16 million worldwide and won zero Oscars. The structure alone should have put him on every studio shortlist for the next decade. It did not.

The Place Beyond the Pines cost $15 million. It is three films in one. A motorcycle stunt rider robs banks to provide for his son. A cop compromises everything to climb the ladder. Their sons inherit the consequences fifteen years later. Gosling. Bradley Cooper. Eva Mendes. Ben Mendelsohn. The ambition of that narrative structure in a $15 million indie is staggering. Most filmmakers with ten times the budget would not attempt it. Cianfrance was forced to cut it down to fit a contractual runtime. He has said himself that unless you have a franchisable universe the scope of the stories you can tell keeps shrinking.

The Light Between Oceans cost $20 million. That is his ceiling. His biggest budget ever. Michael Fassbender. Alicia Vikander. Rachel Weisz. He shot it at a remote lighthouse in New Zealand because he refused to compromise the environment. It made $26 million and lost money. Not because it was bad. Because the market does not prioritize this kind of film and nobody spent the marketing dollars to change that.

That is the pattern. He makes extraordinary work on budgets that would not cover the catering on a Marvel set.

Roofman and the proof of range

Then he came back in 2025 with Roofman and showed everyone something new. Channing Tatum. Kirsten Dunst. Peter Dinklage. LaKeith Stanfield. Ben Mendelsohn again. A true crime comedy about a guy who robbed McDonald's restaurants through the roof and hid in a Toys R Us for six months.

Cianfrance found an abandoned Toys R Us in North Carolina and turned it into a fully operational store because producers told him to shoot in South Africa for the tax credits and he said no. Because the ghosts of the story are not in South Africa. That is the kind of filmmaker he is. He does not take shortcuts because shortcuts make worse movies.

Roofman proved he can do comedy. He can do tenderness. He can do crime. He can do romance. He has always been able to do devastation. The range is complete. The only thing missing is the budget.

What $100M and final cut looks like

Imagine Cianfrance with real resources. Not Marvel money. Not even Nolan money. Just enough to build worlds the size of his ambition without cobbling together financing from five different companies and shooting under duress.

He shoots on film. He creates environments so real that his actors forget they are acting. Gosling and Williams thought they were married. Fassbender and Vikander actually fell in love on his set. He does not direct performances. He creates conditions for behavior. That is not a technique. That is a philosophy. And it scales.

Give this man an original epic. A three-hour American saga about family and consequence and the weight of choices across generations. He already proved he can do it for $15 million in Pines. Now let him do it with the resources it deserves. Real locations. Real time. A cast that commits for months instead of weeks. Final cut so nobody forces him to shave forty minutes to fit a contractual runtime.

The Place Beyond the Pines was a sketch of what Cianfrance could do with scale. It is time to let him paint the full canvas.

The directors who got the call

Look at the filmmakers who have been given big budgets and creative control in the last five years. Nolan gets $250 million for an ancient Greek epic. Villeneuve gets $190 million for Dune. Chazelle got $80 million for Babylon. Scorsese got $200 million for Killers of the Flower Moon.

Cianfrance's entire feature filmography has cost less than any one of those individual films. Combined. Every movie he has ever made added together does not reach $40 million. And his batting average is arguably higher than all of them. Every single film he has directed has been critically respected and emotionally devastating and now with Roofman he has proven he can make people laugh too.

He belongs in that conversation. The only reason he is not in it is because nobody has put him there yet.

Someone write the check

This is not complicated. Find Derek Cianfrance. Give him $100 million. Give him final cut. Give him a cast that wants to work the way he works. Give him an original screenplay or let him write one. Then get out of the way.

His entire career has been defined by making the most out of the least. Imagine what happens when you remove that constraint. Imagine what The Place Beyond the Pines looks like with the budget it deserved. Imagine what the next one looks like when the filmmaker is not fighting for every dollar.

The best version of Hollywood is the one where filmmakers like this get funded. Not as a charity case. Not as a prestige play. Because the work is going to be extraordinary and everyone involved will know it the moment they see dailies.

Someone write the check. He has earned it four times over.
DIRECTOR SPOTLIGHT · ESSAY
The Best Directors Working Right Now All Happen to Be Women. Stop Making That the Story.
Fargeat makes films that dare you to look away. Fennell makes films that dare you to have an opinion. Gerwig turns impossible commercial propositions into cultural events. Stop calling it a moment. Moments end.
FEB 21, 2026
▼ READ FULL ARTICLE

Coralie Fargeat did not make a great female-directed horror film. She made one of the best horror films of the decade. Emerald Fennell did not have a moment. She is building a filmography. Greta Gerwig did not get lucky with Barbie. She turned a toy commercial into a $1.4 billion cultural event and now Netflix is handing her the keys to Narnia because she is the safest bet in the industry.

These are not women who are doing well for women directors. These are the best directors working. Period. The fact that the conversation keeps centering gender instead of the work is the last remaining tell that the industry has not actually caught up.

Coralie Fargeat and the absence of apology

The Substance is a film that should not work. It is too long. It is too gross. It is too loud. It goes places that would make most studio executives physically leave the room during a test screening.

Fargeat does not care. She directed that film like someone who already knows the audience is going to be split and decided to make the split wider. There is a version of The Substance that pulls its punches in the third act. That version makes $30 million more and nobody talks about it six months later. Fargeat chose the version that people will be arguing about for years. That is not recklessness. That is confidence. The kind of confidence that most male directors get celebrated for automatically and most female directors get questioned about in interviews.

She came out of nowhere with Revenge in 2017 and proved she could direct action. Then she waited. She did not rush into a franchise. She did not take a Marvel meeting to prove she could play in the big leagues. She made exactly the film she wanted to make on her own terms and it worked because the vision was uncompromising.

That is the playbook. It just takes longer when nobody is handing you the playbook.

Emerald Fennell and the art of making people uncomfortable

Promising Young Woman won Best Original Screenplay. Saltburn divided the entire internet. Both films made money. Both films generated more conversation per dollar than almost anything released in their respective years.

Fennell understands something that most filmmakers do not. The best marketing is an argument. If everyone agrees on your film it trends for a weekend. If people fight about your film it trends for months. Saltburn was not a universally beloved movie. It was a universally discussed movie. That is more valuable.

She is writing original screenplays. She is not adapting IP. She is not remaking anything. She is building worlds from scratch that people want to talk about. In 2026 that is the rarest skill in Hollywood because the system is designed to eliminate risk and originality is the biggest risk of all.

Chloé Zhao and the system that did not know what to do with her

Nomadland won Best Picture and Best Director. Zhao became the second woman ever to win that award. Then Marvel gave her Eternals and the conversation shifted entirely to whether the movie worked within the MCU instead of whether the filmmaker was allowed to be herself inside it.

Eternals was not a bad movie. It was a compromised one. You could feel Zhao trying to bring her naturalistic sensibility into a machine that does not want naturalism. The golden hour lighting against green screen backgrounds. The quiet character work between action sequences that existed because the formula demanded them. She was fighting the system from inside the system and the system won.

The lesson is not that Zhao failed at blockbusters. The lesson is that the blockbuster system failed her. She made one of the most beautiful and human films of the decade with Nomadland and the reward was being asked to make something that required her to suppress everything that made her interesting.

Wherever she goes next matters. She has proven she can win the highest award in the industry. She has proven she can survive the franchise machine. Now she gets to choose. That is power.

Greta Gerwig and the $1.4 billion argument

Barbie made $1.4 billion. Let that number sit for a second.

Not a superhero movie. Not a sequel to a billion dollar franchise. A movie about a doll directed by a woman who started in mumblecore. The highest grossing film directed by a solo female director in history. By a wide margin.

Now Netflix is betting their entire theatrical future on her with Narnia. That is not a compliment. That is a business decision. Gerwig has proven she can take a concept that sounds impossible on paper and turn it into an event. Lady Bird was a small personal film that grossed $79 million on a $10 million budget. Little Women was a period adaptation that made $218 million. Barbie was a $1.4 billion phenomenon. The trajectory is not luck. It is skill compounding.

Aleshea Harris and building from scratch

Is God Is has not come out yet and it is already the most exciting debut of 2026.

Harris wrote the play. Won awards for it. Wrote the screenplay. Is directing the adaptation. Tessa Thompson is producing. The cast is Sterling K. Brown, Janelle Monáe, Vivica A. Fox, Kara Young, and Mallori Johnson. This is not a filmmaker being given an opportunity. This is a filmmaker who built the opportunity from the ground up. She wrote the source material. She adapted it herself. She is directing it herself. Nobody handed her an IP and said make this work. She created the IP and then proved it deserved a screen.

That is the hardest path in the industry and she is walking it with a cast that chose to be there because the material is that strong.

The actual point

Five filmmakers. Five completely different voices. The only thing they share is that they are making original, ambitious, uncompromising work at a time when the industry is begging everyone to play it safe.

Fargeat makes films that dare you to look away. Fennell makes films that dare you to have an opinion. Zhao makes films that ask you to sit still and feel something. Gerwig makes films that turn impossible commercial propositions into cultural events. Harris is building from nothing and arriving fully formed.

Stop calling it a moment. Moments end. This is a shift. The work is the story. Start there.
REWATCHABILITY
Happy Gilmore Has a Higher Rewatchability Score Than Schindler's List. Here's Why That's Not Insane.
One is an objectively better film. The other is the one you've actually watched 40 times. We scored both. The results are honest.
COMING SOON
LEGACY TRACKER
In 2035, People Will Talk About The Brutalist the Way They Talk About There Will Be Blood Now.
Three and a half hours. Brady Corbet directing. A24 distributing. Zero franchise potential. This is an all-timer forming in real time.
COMING SOON
Cause of Death: Opening Weekend

Box Office Autopsy

Why it made money. Why it didn't. The story behind the numbers that nobody tells you.

28 Years Later: The Bone Temple
FLOP
BUDGET: $63M · DOMESTIC: $25M · WORLDWIDE: $57M · RT: 92%
Too soon after the first movie. Confusing marketing made it seem like the same film. The Bone Temple had a whole new tone for the franchise and it was nowhere to be found in the marketing.
Mercy
FLOP
BUDGET: $60M · DOMESTIC: $18M · WORLDWIDE: $41M · RT: 24%
Typical Pratt choice. Uninspired content that should have went to a streamer.
Wuthering Heights
HIT
BUDGET: $80M · DOMESTIC: $45M · WORLDWIDE: $125M (10 DAYS) · RT: 59%
Emerald Fennell turned a million-year-old book into a holiday event. Turned down $150M from Netflix for an $80M theatrical deal. Charli XCX soundtrack. Viral unboxing campaigns. Steamy billboards. First 2026 film to cross $100M worldwide. Critics didn't love it — doesn't matter. Masterclass in selling to an audience that doesn't read reviews.
Send Help
SLEEPER
BUDGET: ~$40M · DOMESTIC: $50M+ · WORLDWIDE: $74M+ · RT: FRESH
All McAdams. Rachel McAdams coming back after time off, proving she can still open a film. Sam Raimi directing. Dylan O'Brien co-starring. First film of 2026 to spend multiple weeks at #1. Dropped 0.8% in its second weekend. No franchise, no IP. Just works. The autopsy: audiences will still show up for a movie star if the movie is good and the marketing doesn't lie about what it is.
Threat Assessment: 2026

Risky Business

Every major 2026 release, assessed. Money printers. Ticking time bombs. And the ones in between. Click to read the full threat assessment.

The Super Mario Galaxy Movie
Illumination · Universal · Apr 2026
Money Printer
Budget
$100M
Projected DOM
$600M+
Break Even WW
$250M
Threat Level
Our pick for #1 domestic gross of 2026. The first one made $574M domestic on a $100M budget and $1.36B worldwide. This one will top it. Kids don't have superhero fatigue. Yoshi is in this one. Jack Black's Bowser is back. The IP is bulletproof and animated sequels have been crushing it — Inside Out 2 did $1.7B, Moana 2 crossed a billion. Every kid who watched the first one 400 times on Peacock is dragging their parents back. Mario doesn't need to convince anyone to show up. It just needs to not be bad.
The Mandalorian & Grogu
Lucasfilm · Disney · Favreau · May 2026
Money Printer
Budget
$166M
Projected DOM
$400M+
Break Even WW
$330M
Threat Level
Don't bet against Favreau. The man made Iron Man, The Jungle Book, and The Lion King — three films that collectively grossed over $3.5B. Yes, this is a streaming show jumping to theatrical. But at $166M it's the cheapest Disney-era Star Wars film ever — less than half what Rise of Skywalker cost. Grogu is the most marketable character Disney has created since Baby Yoda is literally Baby Yoda. Even Solo made $393M worldwide, and this has far more goodwill. Favreau knows how to make four-quadrant blockbusters in his sleep. This prints.
Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping
Lionsgate · Francis Lawrence · Nov 2026
Money Printer
Budget
$185M
Projected DOM
$350M+
Break Even WW
$460M
Threat Level
The cast alone is worth the price of admission. Jesse Plemons. Kieran Culkin. Elle Fanning. Ralph Fiennes. Glenn Close. Maya Hawke. Mckenna Grace. Jennifer Lawrence and Josh Hutcherson confirmed returning. The book sold 1.5M copies in its first week. Francis Lawrence directing again. A1 marketing so far. Franchise total is $3.3B and this is Haymitch's story — the most brutal Games in the lore. Owns Thanksgiving. This is not Ballad of Songbirds. This is the real deal.
Toy Story 5
Pixar · Disney · Stanton · Jun 2026
Money Printer
Budget
$200M
Projected DOM
$400M+
Break Even WW
$500M
Threat Level
Toy Story 3 was the perfect ending. Toy Story 4 was the unnecessary epilogue that somehow worked and made $1.07B. Five is Pixar finding out if they can keep getting away with it. They can. This is the most reliable family IP on the planet. Parents who grew up with Woody will take their kids. The kids will cry. The parents will cry harder. Pixar after Inside Out 2 has its swagger back. Andrew Stanton directing is the cherry on top.
Minions 3
Illumination · Universal · 2026
Money Printer
Budget
$100M
Projected DOM
$350M+
Break Even WW
$250M
Threat Level
The Despicable Me franchise averages $937M per film. The original Minions did $1.1B. Illumination's entire business model is making these movies for $100M and watching them print close to a billion. There is no creative risk here. There is no audience risk. There is only profit. The little yellow guys are unstoppable and nobody can explain why.
Avengers: Doomsday
Marvel · Disney · Russo Bros · Dec 2026
High Risk
Budget
$500M+
Projected DOM
$500M
Break Even WW
$1.25B
Threat Level
Our hottest take. The 2025 MCU lost an estimated $320M across three films. Captain America: Brave New World, Thunderbolts, and Fantastic Four all underperformed — and Thunderbolts had an 88% on Rotten Tomatoes. Good reviews didn't save it. The Doomsday teasers have been called "boring" and "disappointing" by multiple outlets. SlashFilm ranked each one worse than the last. No Super Bowl spot — breaking a 14-year Avengers tradition. The Russos outside Marvel made The Gray Man and The Electric State, Netflix's most expensive movie and their worst. RDJ as Doom divides fans. December release is uncharted territory for Avengers. Will it make money? Probably. Will it make Endgame money? Not a chance. Mario beats it domestically. Book it.
Digger
Warner Bros · Iñárritu · Tom Cruise · Oct 2026
High Risk
Budget
$125M
Projected DOM
$80M
Break Even WW
$310M
Threat Level
$125M for an R-rated Alejandro González Iñárritu comedy. Tom Cruise in prosthetics playing a character named Digger Rockwell. Shot on 35mm VistaVision with Lubezki behind the camera. Already being compared to PTA's One Battle After Another — awards darling, box office question mark. Warner Bros. is swinging for Oscars AND commercial returns at this budget. That almost never works. "A comedy of catastrophic proportions" is either the tagline or the box office report. We'll find out in October.
Supergirl: Woman of Tomorrow
DCU · Warner Bros · Milly Alcock · Jun 2026
High Risk
Budget
$200M
Projected DOM
$200M
Break Even WW
$500M
Threat Level
The second real test of Gunn's DCU after Superman managed $616M worldwide — fine, not great. Now they're betting $200M on Milly Alcock, who most people know as young Rhaenyra from House of the Dragon and nothing else. The character has zero cultural footprint with general audiences. Gunn's name means something to film Twitter but the average moviegoer doesn't know who he is beyond Guardians. If this misses, the DCU is already in trouble two films in.
Jumanji 3
Sony · Jake Kasdan · Dec 2026
High Risk
Budget
$150M
Projected DOM
$200M
Break Even WW
$375M
Threat Level
Seven years since the last one. Welcome to the Jungle did $962M. Next Level did $800M — already trending down. Now the gap is longer than most people's attention spans. The Rock's box office pull has cratered — Black Adam flopped, Red One flopped. The Netflix run of the originals might reignite interest, but it also might remind people they can just watch it at home. Opens December 11, one week before Doomsday and Dune. That's a bloodbath corridor. Might change with a trailer. Hasn't changed yet.
Narnia: The Magician's Nephew
Netflix · Greta Gerwig · Nov 2026
Medium Risk
Budget
$200M+
Projected DOM
$270M
Break Even WW
$500M
Threat Level
Netflix's biggest theatrical bet ever. Gerwig post-Barbie has the credibility but Narnia hasn't been culturally relevant in 15 years. The 2005 version worked because it rode the LOTR wave. There is no wave now. Netflix has no theatrical distribution muscle — they're learning to walk while running a marathon. IMAX Thanksgiving, Netflix Christmas Day. If this hits it changes everything for Netflix. If it misses it's the most expensive lesson in streaming history. The cast is incredible — Daniel Craig, Meryl Streep, Emma Mackey, Carey Mulligan. But cast doesn't sell fantasy IP. World-building does.
Disclosure Day
Universal · Spielberg · 2026
Medium Risk
Budget
$150M
Projected DOM
$180M
Break Even WW
$375M
Threat Level
Spielberg doing sci-fi should be the safest bet in Hollywood. It's not anymore. West Side Story did $76M. The Fabelmans did $46M. Two brilliant films that audiences skipped. This is his first truly commercial sci-fi since Ready Player One in 2018. If this is Close Encounters energy, it could be massive. But the question is no longer whether Spielberg can make a great film. The question is whether audiences will show up for one. That's not his fault. But it is his problem.
Moana (Live Action)
Disney · Thomas Kail · The Rock · Jul 2026
Medium Risk
Budget
$180M
Projected DOM
$280M
Break Even WW
$450M
Threat Level
Still plays to the girls. The animated original and sequel are massive — Moana 2 crossed a billion. But the live action looks bad. The Rock's box office pull has cratered since 2019. Disney live action remakes are a coin flip now. Lion King and Aladdin printed money. Snow White was a disaster. The question is whether the audience that streamed Moana 2 on Disney+ will pay $15 to see the same story with real people. Medium risk because the IP floor is high. But the ceiling might be lower than Disney thinks.
The Odyssey
Universal · Nolan · IMAX · Jul 2026
Low Risk
Budget
$250M
Projected DOM
$460M
Break Even WW
$625M
Threat Level
$250M for a non-franchise, non-IP ancient Greek epic with no returning characters is objectively insane. The only reason this is low risk is because Nolan post-Oppenheimer is untouchable. Matt Damon, Tom Holland, Anne Hathaway, Zendaya, Robert Pattinson. The director's name IS the franchise. IMAX tickets sold out a year in advance. If anyone else made this movie it would be the riskiest film of the decade. Nolan makes it the safest.
Spider-Man: Brand New Day
Marvel · Sony · Tom Holland · Jul 2026
Low Risk
Budget
$250M
Projected DOM
$500M
Break Even WW
$625M
Threat Level
Tom Holland is the one Marvel star who still moves the needle. No Way Home did $1.9B. Strong star power, new villains, and the goodwill from No Way Home's ending gives this a massive runway. Spider-Man is the one MCU property that has been essentially critic-proof and fatigue-proof. Even in Marvel's worst years, Spider-Man shows up. This is as close to a sure thing as the MCU has left.
Dune: Part Three
Warner Bros · Villeneuve · Dec 2026
Low Risk
Budget
$200M
Projected DOM
$300M
Break Even WW
$500M
Threat Level
Villeneuve delivers. Part One built the audience. Part Two doubled it to $711M worldwide. This franchise has only trended up, which almost never happens. Opens December 18 — same day as Doomsday. That's a fascinating collision but December has room for two. Dune Messiah is a darker, weirder book than the first, but Villeneuve has earned the trust to go wherever he wants. Chalamet and Zendaya are the biggest young stars on the planet. Low risk.
Project Hail Mary
Amazon MGM · Lord & Miller · Gosling · Mar 2026
Low Risk
Budget
$150M
Projected DOM
$250M
Break Even WW
$375M
Threat Level
Ryan Gosling alone in space with a puppet alien and it might be the best sci-fi film since Arrival. Great word of mouth already. Proven filmmakers — Lord and Miller don't miss. The source material is beloved and the first trailer hit massive numbers. The only concern is Amazon MGM's theatrical track record, but the movie itself looks like the kind of thing that sells itself through audience reaction. IMAX 70mm. This is why you go to a theater.
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CASE FILE NO. 001

The Manifesto

For too long, the film conversation has been dominated by one thing: scoops.

Who's been cast. What leaked on set. Which cut tested poorly. Every detail strip-mined from production until you've seen more behind-the-scenes footage than the actual movie. By the time the lights go down on opening night, you already know more about the film than the star does.

That's not film culture. That's an assembly line of content dressed up as journalism.

We're not interested in being first. We're interested in being right — after the dust settles, after the opening weekend takes cool off, after the discourse dies down and the only thing left is the film itself.

Hollywood Afterthought exists to examine what a film actually does once it's out in the world.

How it holds up on the second watch. Whether the box office told the real story or just the loud one. Whether the marketing sold the right movie or buried it. Did the campaign work? Did the release strategy make sense? Did a $200 million film leave $100 million on the table because someone decided to open it against the biggest franchise of the year?

We examine the business the way the business should be examined — after the results are in. Not predictions dressed up as analysis. Actual results. Actual money. What worked, what didn't, and what should change next time.

We don't break news. We don't chase scoops. We don't care who's dating who on set.

We care about what the movie is — after the hype dies down, after the takes have been taken, after the credits roll and you're sitting in the parking lot thinking about what you just saw.

That's the afterthought. That's the whole point.

The Only Score That Matters

The Rewatchability Score

Not whether a film is good. Whether you'd actually sit down and watch it again. That's a different question — and nobody else is asking it.

97
Jurassic Park
1993 · Spielberg · Adventure
95
Back to the Future
1985 · Zemeckis · Sci-Fi
94
Goodfellas
1990 · Scorsese · Crime
92
The Big Lebowski
1998 · Coen Bros · Comedy
78
Interstellar
2014 · Nolan · Sci-Fi
61
There Will Be Blood
2007 · PTA · Drama
29
Requiem for a Dream
2000 · Aronofsky · Drama
93
The Irishman
2019 · Scorsese · Crime
Hollywood Afterthought will return.
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